Terms of Service

Uncertain (uncertain.fyi)
Effective date: October 8, 2026
Last updated: October 8, 2026

These terms are an agreement between you and the individual in Toronto, Ontario, Canada who runs Uncertain (the "site") ("I", "me"). By using the site you agree to them. If you don't agree, please don't use the site.

Nothing in these terms takes away rights you have under consumer protection law that can't be waived, including Ontario's Consumer Protection Act.

1. What the site is

Uncertain is a one-person research digest. It covers yes/no questions about politics, markets, technology, energy and other topics. For each question it shows a consensus probability, write-ups of both sides, trend charts and links to sources, with a label for which outcome each source supports. It is refreshed every weekday.

The site also has a portfolio tool. Signed-in users can set their own view on each question and see how that would translate into a basket of exchange-traded funds and other listed securities. They can save it as a practice portfolio with virtual money, or, if they connect their own brokerage account, send it to that account as orders (section 5).

2. Not investment advice

Everything on the site is general research and information. None of it is investment, financial, legal, tax or other professional advice, and none of it is tailored to you.

• The site decides which securities each question might move and by roughly how much. Those are research judgements, mostly made by an AI model, and they may be wrong.
• The portfolio tool turns your views into an allocation across those securities using a fixed formula. It doesn't know or consider your finances, goals, other holdings or risk tolerance, so its output is not a recommendation that the basket suits you.
• If you connect a broker, you decide whether to send that allocation as orders. Nobody reviews your orders before they go.
• I am not registered as an adviser, dealer, broker or portfolio manager with any securities regulator, in Canada or elsewhere, and no regulator has reviewed the site.
• Talk to a qualified, registered professional before making financial decisions.

3. No guarantee of accuracy

• Consensus figures are a snapshot taken at a point in time. They may be out of date by the time you read them.
• Write-ups, charts and source labels are summaries and judgment calls. They may contain errors or omissions. They are researched and written by an AI model (Anthropic's Claude) and published after an automated check of their structure and links, not after a person reviews each one. The same goes for which securities each question is linked to and the estimated price moves the portfolio tool uses.
• The linked sources are the authority. If the site and a source disagree, go with the source.
• Questions may be resolved, retired or removed at any time.
• The site may be unavailable, slow or wrong. Market prices shown or used by the site may be delayed.

To the fullest extent the law allows, the site is provided "as is" and "as available", without warranties of any kind, express or implied, including merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy and non-infringement. Where consumer protection law gives you warranties or conditions that can't be excluded, this paragraph doesn't remove them.

4. Virtual money vs. real money

Practice portfolio. Signed-in users can save a practice portfolio that uses virtual (pretend) money, currently $10,000. Signed-out visitors don't get a portfolio. Saved virtual orders are kept with your account; they don't reset. They are recorded on my server only. They never touch a real market, they have no cash value, and you can't withdraw or redeem them. Virtual performance doesn't predict real results, and it leaves out real-world costs such as spreads, fees, slippage and taxes.

Real money. Today the site can't place orders with real money: order placement works only in paper (simulated) brokerage accounts. A live account can be connected so the site can show its balances and positions, but not to trade. If live order placement is switched on later, I'll update these terms first. The site labels each connected account "paper" or "live".

5. Connected brokerage accounts

You can optionally connect your own brokerage account by giving the site API keys you created with your broker. Right now the only supported broker is Alpaca.

By connecting an account, you agree that:

1. It's your account. You'll only connect an account you own and are authorized to trade, using keys you created yourself.
2. Orders are yours. Every order sent through a connected account is placed on your instruction, in your name, for your account. The site does not trade for you on its own initiative.
3. Your broker executes them. Orders are received, executed, cleared and held by your broker under your agreement with them. Your broker, not me, is responsible for execution, custody, fills, prices, fees, margin, settlement, account statements and regulatory reporting. I'm not a party to your brokerage agreement.
4. Queued orders keep going. Saving a portfolio can create several orders. Some are held back, for example until sells finish or the market opens, and a scheduled job on my server sends them later even if you have left the site. You can stop them by disconnecting your broker in Settings: before it disconnects, the site cancels every order of yours that hasn't been sent yet and asks your broker to cancel any that are still open. If your broker can't confirm a cancellation, the site tells you and you can cancel the order with your broker directly. Once an order has filled, it can't be undone.
5. Results may differ from the preview. Fill prices, quantities, partial fills, rejections and timing are decided by your broker and the market, and may differ from what the site showed.
6. You're responsible for your keys. Revoke or rotate them with your broker if you think they've been exposed. You can disconnect at any time in Settings, which deletes the stored keys.
7. Live trading is off. Live accounts can be connected and read, but placing orders in them is switched off. I won't switch it on without first updating these terms and the Privacy Policy. I may restrict or switch off any broker feature at any time, including for regulatory reasons.
8. No liability for trading losses. Any gains or losses in a connected account are yours. See section 8.

6. Your account

• You sign in with a Google account. Keep that account secure. You're responsible for activity under your sign-in.
• You must be at least 18, or the age of majority where you live if that's higher, to sign in. To connect a brokerage account you must also be allowed to hold that account where you live.
• One person per account. Don't share your account or use someone else's.

7. Acceptable use

Don't:

• use the site in a way that breaks the law or anyone's rights, including securities and market-manipulation laws
• connect a brokerage account you don't own or aren't authorized to trade
• try to get into other users' accounts or data, or into parts of the site you aren't authorized to use
• probe, scan or test the site's vulnerabilities, or get around its security or rate limits, without my written permission
• overload or disrupt the site, or use automated means to make excessive requests
• scrape or republish the site's content in bulk, or present it as your own, without permission
• reverse-engineer or abuse the site's API outside normal use of the site

The site's content, design and code belong to me or are used with permission. Linked sources belong to their owners. You may read and share links to the site, and quote small portions with attribution.

8. Limitation of liability

To the fullest extent the law allows:

• I'm not liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential or punitive damages. This includes lost profits, trading losses, lost data and lost opportunities, arising from or related to the site, its content, the portfolio tool, or any order placed through a connected broker. This applies even if I was told such damages were possible.
• I'm not liable for the acts, omissions, outages or errors of third parties, including your broker, Google, Cloudflare and my hosting provider.
• My total liability to you for all claims relating to the site is limited to the greater of CAD $100 or the amount you paid me to use the site in the 12 months before the claim. The site is currently free.

None of this limits my liability for fraud, gross negligence or wilful misconduct, or for anything else the law doesn't allow to be limited. If you're a consumer, these limits apply only as far as your consumer protection law allows.

9. Indemnity

To the extent the law allows, you agree to compensate me for claims by other people, and the reasonable costs of dealing with them, that arise from your breach of these terms or your unlawful use of the site. This doesn't cover anything caused by my own fault, and it doesn't apply where consumer protection law doesn't allow it.

10. Termination

• You can stop using the site at any time, and disconnect your broker in Settings. Deleting your account isn't available yet: there's no delete button and no contact address (see the Privacy Policy, section 7).
• I may suspend or close any account, disconnect any broker connection, or change, limit or shut down the site or any feature (including the portfolio tool and broker connections), at any time, with or without notice. This includes cases where you break these terms or where I need to for legal reasons.
• If the site or your account is closed, orders that already reached your broker stay with your broker.
• Sections 2, 3, 5.2, 5.3, 5.8, 8, 9, 11 and 12 survive termination.

11. Changes to these terms

I may update these terms. I'll change the "Last updated" date, and if a change is significant I'll post a notice on the site before it takes effect. Changes don't apply to anything that happened before they took effect. Where the law allows, if you keep using the site after a change takes effect, you accept the new terms. If you don't agree, stop using the site and disconnect your broker.

12. Governing law and disputes

These terms are governed by the laws of the Province of Ontario and the federal laws of Canada that apply there. Disputes go to the courts of Ontario. If you're a consumer, this doesn't take away the protection of the consumer laws where you live, or any right you have to bring a claim in your local courts, including small claims court.

13. Other terms

• These terms and the Privacy Policy are the whole agreement between us about the site. Your agreement with your broker is separate.
• If any part of these terms is found unenforceable, the rest still applies.
• If I don't enforce a term right away, I haven't waived it.
• You can't transfer your rights under these terms. I may transfer mine if the site changes hands, and I'll give notice on the site if that happens.

14. Contact

Uncertain is run by one person in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. There is no contact email yet. One will be published here.