About Uncertain

Uncertain is a research digest of open yes/no questions that markets care about. It is run independently by one person in Toronto.

Why it exists. Most forecasting content leads with a conclusion. Uncertain leads with the disagreement: where consensus sits, who is on each side, and which instruments each outcome would move.

How consensus is set. Every weekday an AI research run (Anthropic's Claude) reads prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi where they exist. Where they don't, it reads news reporting and professional analysis. From that reading it records a single probability. The figure is a judgement, not the output of a formula or an average of markets. Questions without a market, such as court rulings, rely on commentary alone. Each figure carries a low, medium or high confidence label. Updates publish automatically after an automated check of structure and source links. A person doesn't check each figure by hand.

Source labels. Each question lists sources pointing both ways. A "yes", "no" or "mixed" label shows which outcome a source's evidence supports. It doesn't show political leaning.

Point-in-time figures. A probability is a reading from that day's run, and trend charts plot one reading per weekday. Live markets move continuously, so the linked originals are the authority.

Selection and retirement. A question must have two outcomes, be genuinely unresolved, be certain to resolve, and move liquid US-listed instruments. Up to twelve questions are active, across at least four categories. A question's wording is fixed for life. Questions are retired when they resolve, when consensus converges, when events overtake them, or when they stall (under 5 points of movement across seven readings).

The position slider. Readers set their own probability. When it differs from consensus, the site builds a long-only basket. It's weighted toward the instruments expected to gain most if the reader is right, and the size of the gap sets how much is invested rather than left in cash. The estimated price moves are the least certain inputs. The weights don't account for volatility, costs, taxes or timing. The instruments and estimated moves come from the same AI research run, not from a person. Signed-in readers can save a practice portfolio with $10,000 of virtual money, or connect their own brokerage account and send the basket as orders (paper accounts only for now). Either way the basket is a mechanical translation of the reader's own view. It doesn't know their finances or goals, and it isn't a recommendation that it suits them.

General research and information only — not investment advice. Uncertain isn't registered with any securities regulator. See the Terms and Privacy Policy.

Contact. There is no contact email yet. One will be published here.