Does the US and Canada finalize a trade deal by Aug 21?
Will the United States and Canada finalize their trade agreement before the extended deadline expires at end of day August 21, 2026, averting the 50% Section 338 tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods?
Resolved Aug 22, 2026 · tracked from Aug 19, 2026
Final reading: 62% yes
Resolved no. Talks collapsed hours before the deadline — USTR Jamieson Greer said Canada didn't accept the offered terms — and the 50% tariff on roughly $20B of Canadian goods took effect just after midnight Saturday, Aug 22. Carney called it 'dollar for dollar' and said Canada would retaliate with matching tariffs on steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp/paper and electronics starting Sept 8. Consensus had drifted up to 62% yes into deadline day on real reported progress (specific steel/aluminum and auto numbers, Carney's alcohol-restocking concession) — the momentum was genuine, but it wasn't enough to close the remaining gap in time, a reminder that 'near a deal' news flow can systematically overstate the odds of a hard deadline being met.