Does a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect?
Will an effective ceasefire take hold between Russia and Ukraine, halting active combat operations in the war?
Paused Oct 8, 2026 · tracked from Sep 7, 2026
Last reading: 12% yes
Marked dormant, not resolved: probability moved only 3 points across its last seven readings and today's research again found no confirmed movement beyond the Oct 4-5 picture (a proposed end-of-October US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral with no Russian-confirmed date, venue or agenda). The underlying war is very much live — Russia has pledged intensified Kyiv strikes — but the ceasefire odds themselves have been flat for two weeks. Revive under this same id if talks firm up or the picture otherwise moves.
13% Sep 7, 202612% Oct 7, 2026