Does the jury find Arm breached its license with Qualcomm?
Will the jury in Qualcomm's Delaware federal trial against Arm Holdings find that Arm breached its licensing agreement with Qualcomm, whether by withholding chip-design tools, violating its pricing-parity commitment, or interfering with Qualcomm's dealings with Meta?
A genuine coin-flip with a slight lean toward Arm — Qualcomm has the stronger litigation track record against Arm specifically, but 'no harm shown' defenses have historically been persuasive to juries in licensing-breach disputes, and no prediction market exists to anchor a number
The case for a breach finding: Qualcomm already won the comparable 2024 trial outright on the question of its own conduct, its legal team (Karen Dunn) has a strong record in this specific courtroom relationship, and the leaked letter to Bloomberg is a concrete, documented act Arm doesn't fully deny. The case against: Arm's defense that Qualcomm 'suffered no harm' — framing the Meta deal and other claimed damages as speculative — is a classic and often-successful defense in contract-breach trials where damages are hard to quantify, and the jury's own four-plus hours without a verdict on Oct 9 suggests genuine deliberation rather than an easy call either way.
No fixed date · A five-day jury trial before Judge Maryellen Noreika in Wilmington, Delaware concluded and deliberations began Oct 9, 2026, resuming Oct 13 with no verdict yet; a separate bench ruling on whether Arm negotiated in good faith is expected later and resolves a related but distinct question
This is the second Qualcomm-Arm jury trial in two years: in December 2024, a different Delaware jury found Qualcomm did not breach its Nuvia license and deadlocked on whether Nuvia itself breached it, a mixed result that sent Arm shares down roughly 5% and Qualcomm shares up about 1.6-1.8%. This time Qualcomm is the plaintiff, alleging Arm withheld chip-design software patches and tools, broke a commitment to keep Qualcomm's payments within 10% of Arm's lowest price for comparable processor designs, and leaked a 2024 breach-notice letter to Bloomberg specifically to damage Qualcomm's talks with Meta. Qualcomm's counsel Karen Dunn told the jury 'Qualcomm's entire chip business depends on... Arm honoring its contract'; Arm's Gregg LoCascio countered that Qualcomm was 'not harmed in the least' and that the suit is leverage for licensing talks. The jury deliberated roughly four hours on Friday Oct 9 without a verdict and resumed Tuesday Oct 13 — today — so a result could land at any point from here. A separate bench trial on whether Arm negotiated Qualcomm's next-generation architecture license in good faith runs on its own track and may not be decided until well after the jury reports.
The jury returns a verdict that either finds Arm liable for breach on at least one of Qualcomm's claims or clears Arm on all of them — a discrete factual finding with no partial state once returned, as in the two companies' comparable 2024 trial.
Researched Oct 13, 2026 · tracked since Oct 13, 2026
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Jury finds Arm breached the licensethis is “yes”
Qualcomm already won the comparable December 2024 trial outright, its legal team has a documented edge in this specific courtroom relationship, and the leaked letter to Bloomberg is a concrete act central to Qualcomm's interference claim that Arm doesn't fully dispute.
Worth knowing: Even a breach finding doesn't automatically hand Qualcomm the five-year royalty holiday it wants — Judge Noreika still has to rule separately on whether that specific remedy is enforceable, and Arm argues it isn't.
Jury clears Arm
Arm's 'no harm shown' defense — framing Qualcomm's claimed damages from the Meta deal and other losses as speculative — is a classic and often-persuasive defense in contract-breach cases, and the jury's own multi-hour deliberation without a quick verdict suggests Qualcomm's case wasn't the slam dunk its filings implied.
Worth knowing: A defense win on the jury's questions doesn't end the dispute either — the separate bench trial on whether Arm negotiated Qualcomm's next-generation license in good faith is decided by the judge alone and could still go against Arm regardless of the jury's verdict here.
5 sources, leaning both ways
- mixedReuters (via KFGO) — Qualcomm, Arm contract trial heads to jury deliberationsChecked Oct 13: confirms the jury deliberated about four hours Friday without a verdict and resumes Tuesday; lays out Qualcomm's specific claims (withheld tools, broken price-parity term, the Meta leak) and quotes both sides' lead counsel directly.
- mixedThe Star (Malaysia/Reuters) — Qualcomm and Arm set for jury verdict in contract breach feudOct 9: previews the case as the second Qualcomm-Arm trial in two years and notes the 2024 trial went in Qualcomm's favor on the question the jury was asked — a precedent cutting toward 'yes' even as this trial's specific claims differ.
- mixedTradingpedia — Qualcomm-Arm contract clash nears pivotal jury decisionOct 9: confirms Qualcomm's Arm architecture license runs through 2033 and that Qualcomm is seeking a pre-trial ruling letting it suspend royalties for five years if breach is found — the judge has not yet ruled on that remedy's enforceability, a separate question from the jury's.
- yesQualcomm Incorporated — Qualcomm Achieves Complete Victory Over Arm in Litigation Challenging Licensing AgreementsQualcomm's own press release on the September 2025 post-trial ruling in the prior Nuvia case, where Judge Noreika rejected Arm's remaining claim and request for a new trial — the same judge presiding over this trial, with a history of siding with Qualcomm on post-verdict motions.
- noBenzinga — What's Going On With Arm Stock Monday?Dec 2024: documents Arm shares falling roughly 5% and Qualcomm shares rising about 1.6-1.8% after the prior jury's mixed verdict went mostly Qualcomm's way — the event-study basis this topic's instrument moves are sized from, and a reminder Arm has absorbed a loss like this before without lasting damage to its license book.