Friday, September 11
Closed — consensus converged

Does the government shut down on October 1?

Will a lapse in federal appropriations cause the US government to shut down at the October 1, 2026 funding deadline?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026 · tracked from Sep 1, 2026

Final reading: 2% yes

Converged, not literally resolved — the Oct 1 deadline is still four weeks out. But the House passed the CR 370-48 on Sept 1 (following the Senate's 90-6 vote on Aug 29), funding the government through Dec 11, and it now awaits an expected signature from a White House that publicly encouraged the bill. Both chambers cleared it by veto-proof, bipartisan-supermajority margins with no reported holdouts after passage — the residual House-hardliner risk this topic was tracking (the hemp/THC provision fight) didn't materialize into a blocking bloc. A shutdown is no longer a genuinely uncertain outcome; this is retired as converged rather than carried to Oct 1 for form's sake.

100500Sep 1, 2026: 7%Sep 2, 2026: 2%
7% Sep 1, 20262% Sep 2, 2026