Will the federal government shut down when funding lapses on December 11, 2026?
Will the U.S. federal government be in a lapse of appropriations (a shutdown) at 10:00am ET on December 12, 2026, following the expiration of the continuing resolution (H.R. 6500) that funds the government through December 11, 2026?
Nudged slightly higher — the Senate deadlock remains total with six weeks to the deadline, and the one new legislative fix in play (automatic-CR bill) has no realistic path to enactment before December 11
The case for a shutdown: the Senate Appropriations Committee remains fully deadlocked along party lines with none of the twelve FY2027 bills finalized, Chairman Cole has publicly said there isn't enough time to complete the bills before December, the government has already lapsed into a shutdown twice in the prior 13 months, and the Nov 3 midterms will have just passed, removing the main electoral incentive either party had to avoid a shutdown this time. The case against: the September stopgap passed with overwhelming bipartisan margins (90-6 in the Senate, 370-48 in the House), showing both parties have repeatedly preferred a continuing resolution over a lapse, the House has already passed three of the twelve full-year bills, and members of both parties have publicly taken credit for 'keeping the government open,' suggesting neither side wants to be blamed for a holiday-season shutdown.
Resolves Dec 12, 2026 · Status of federal appropriations the morning after the Dec 11, 2026 continuing-resolution deadline (H.R. 6500)
Today's (Oct 27) check found Congress still in its pre-midterm posture with no new floor action to report: the Senate Appropriations Committee remains deadlocked along party lines with zero of the twelve FY2027 bills finalized, and House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole's warning that there isn't enough time left before December stands unchallenged. A bipartisan Senate push — the Lankford-Hassan 'Prevent Government Shutdowns Act,' which would impose an automatic 14-day rolling continuing resolution on any future lapse — remains only a bill, with no sign it could pass and take effect before this December's deadline. The government has already lapsed into a shutdown twice in the prior 13 months (a 43-day shutdown in fall 2025 and another lapse in early 2026), underscoring how real the risk is even with members of both parties publicly campaigning on having 'kept the government open' in September. With Nov 3 midterms now just one week away, Congress has little incentive to negotiate seriously on FY2027 funding before voters go to the polls.
At that moment, federal appropriations have either lapsed into a shutdown or they haven't — a discrete, binary fact about funding status with no partial outcome.
Researched Oct 27, 2026 · tracked since Oct 23, 2026 · 3 readings
What do you think?
Take a side
A shutdown is in effect on Dec 12this is “yes”
The Senate Appropriations Committee remains fully deadlocked with none of the twelve FY2027 bills finalized, the committee's own chairman has warned there isn't enough time, and the government has already lapsed twice in the prior 13 months — a pattern that argues the Dec 11 deadline is at real risk of becoming a third lapse, especially once the Nov 3 midterms remove the main reason either side had to avoid one.
Worth knowing: History shows shutdowns have had surprisingly little lasting effect on broad markets — the S&P 500 actually rose during the 35-day 2018-19 shutdown — so sizing this trade on volatility and contractor names rather than the broad index matters.
Funding is extended or resolved before Dec 12
Both parties passed the September stopgap with overwhelming bipartisan margins, members on both sides are already campaigning on having kept the government open, and the House has already passed three of the twelve full-year bills — a track record of preferring continuing resolutions over lapses that a December cliff doesn't obviously break.
Worth knowing: A short-term stopgap extension would resolve this specific question 'no' without resolving the underlying FY2027 budget fight, which could simply resurface at the next deadline.
4 sources, leaning both ways
- mixedThe Daily Signal — Republicans Preemptively Avoid Midterm Government ShutdownChecked Oct 23: confirms the Sept 2026 continuing resolution's strong bipartisan vote margins and its Dec 11 expiration date, while framing it as only a postponement of the underlying funding fight rather than a resolution of it.
- yesCitizen Portal — Risk of government shutdown looms as Congress punts key funding decisions to DecemberChecked Oct 23: reports House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole's warning that the Dec 11 stopgap did not leave enough time to finish FY2027 spending bills, and that the Senate Appropriations Committee remains deadlocked.
- noRep. Tim Walberg — Walberg Votes to Keep Government Open and Prevent Another Democrat ShutdownChecked Oct 23: a House Republican's press release claiming credit for the September vote to keep the government open — evidence members on at least one side are actively campaigning on having avoided a shutdown, a incentive that could extend to December.
- yesCornyn.senate.gov — Cornyn Cosponsors the Prevent Government Shutdowns ActChecked Oct 26: a sitting senator cosponsoring legislation meant to prevent future shutdowns is itself evidence of how routine and expected the shutdown risk has become this Congress, with two lapses already in the prior 13 months.