Does the FOMC hike rates at its December meeting?
Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise its target range for the federal funds rate at the conclusion of its December 8-9, 2026 meeting, rather than holding it steady or cutting?
Genuinely split: a hawkish dissent keeps a December hike live, but Warsh's own preference is unclear
Some sell-side desks read the two hawkish dissents as a strong signal the committee is close to moving, noting a framework where two-or-more dissents historically precede a hike within one or two meetings. Others point out Warsh explicitly limited forward guidance and note the committee will act on September-vintage inflation data at the December meeting, which argues for continuity (another hold) rather than a reactive hike. Estimates across sources published in the past week have ranged from roughly 15% to over 80%, reflecting how unsettled the read on Warsh's own reaction function still is less than two years into his tenure.
Resolves Dec 9, 2026 · FOMC December 2026 meeting decision, announced Dec 9
The Fed held its target range at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 28, but the vote was not unanimous: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, an unusual hawkish dissent pattern rather than the more typical dovish one. Chair Warsh gave little explicit forward guidance in his press conference, a deliberate change from the Powell era, leaving the two dissents as the clearest signal markets have about December. Tokyo-style 'base effects' aside, US inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for most of 2026, and the Fed's own June projections showed several participants expecting at least one more hike before year-end. The December meeting falls before the November CPI report, meaning the committee will decide based on October inflation data (released Nov 10) without the benefit of the most current reading.
The FOMC either raises its target range at this meeting or it doesn't — a discrete, published decision announced in the post-meeting statement on a fixed date.
Researched Oct 30, 2026 · tracked since Oct 30, 2026
What do you think?
Take a side
FOMC hikes in Decemberthis is “yes”
Two voting members already dissented in favor of a hike in October, inflation has run above target most of the year, and Warsh's deliberate opacity about forward guidance means the dissent count is the best signal markets have — and it points hawkish.
Worth knowing: A single 25bp hike is a much smaller shock than the 2022-2023 cycle this topic's move sizes are extrapolated from — don't expect anywhere near the magnitude of moves seen then, even in the hike scenario.
FOMC holds (or cuts) in December
Warsh has explicitly limited forward guidance rather than committing to a path, the committee will act on October-vintage inflation data rather than the freshest print, and the Fed's own gradualist instincts argue for watching the dissents play out over another meeting before acting.
Worth knowing: A hold here does not mean the hiking risk has passed — two sitting dissents for a hike is a genuine signal of committee division that could resolve hawkish at the very next meeting instead.
4 sources, leaning both ways
- mixedAdmiral Markets — Warsh Press Conference: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% to 4% as Cook and Hammack Vote for a HikeChecked Oct 30: primary wrap of the Oct 28 decision, vote count, and the two hawkish dissents.
- yesStoneX — FOMC meeting preview: is Warsh even capable of delivering a hawkish hold?Checked Oct 30: argues the dissent count is the key signal given Warsh's limited forward guidance, with two-plus dissents historically pointing toward a near-term hike.
- mixedBabypips — Will Warsh keep a December rate hike in play, or leave traders searching for clues again?Checked Oct 30: frames December as genuinely live but unresolved heading into the October decision.
- yesStoneX — FOMC recap: Warsh the reformer, as the committee shifts hawkishChecked Oct 30: reads the committee's overall tone as shifting hawkish following the dissents.