Does the Senate pass the CLARITY Act?
Will the U.S. Senate pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) or a successor crypto market-structure bill by a floor vote?
Ticked up to roughly 18% as the White House pushed back publicly on the doom narrative and a prior opponent (NSA) moved to neutral, but Democratic aides say the underlying ethics text hasn't actually moved — messaging, not a deal, is what changed today
Optimists point to the White House's first public pushback this week, its claim of an already-agreed 'wide-ranging ethics provision,' NSA's shift to neutral, and Coinbase's Armstrong continuing to predict passage. Pessimists note two Democratic aides say there's been little real movement on the ethics language Democrats actually want, that Tillis and Rounds — the bill's own sponsors — haven't walked back their Sept 8 pessimism, and that Lummis's 2030 warning still hangs over the vote regardless of this week's rhetoric.
No fixed date · Senate floor vote — no scheduled date; a procedural cloture vote is expected September 15
Four days from cloture, the White House pushed back publicly for the first time this week: a spokesperson said Sept 10-11 that Trump wants Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and that the administration has already agreed to a 'wide-ranging ethics provision' — directly disputing Tillis and Rounds's Sept 8 warnings that the bill is 'likely doomed' without a White House concession. Separately, the National Sheriffs' Association-adjacent NSA (a prior opponent) shifted from opposition to neutral on the bill ahead of the vote, a small but genuine tailwind. Two Democratic aides told reporters there has still been little visible movement on the core Democratic ethics demand, so the White House statement reads more as messaging than a text change. Polymarket's enactment-in-2026 contract sits at 19% on $15.1M traded, near the top of the 15-19.5% band it's held all week; the underlying Sept 15 cloture math is unchanged at needing seven-plus Democratic or independent votes.
The Senate either passes the bill on a floor vote or it doesn't — a discrete legislative action with no scheduled date, since the timing of any vote is entirely at the Majority Leader's discretion.
Researched Sep 11, 2026 · tracked since Aug 12, 2026 · 23 readings
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The Senate passes itthis is “yes”
The White House signs off on Tillis-Gallego ethics language, the stablecoin-yield fight gets a narrow carve-out, and Thune finds 60 votes in the two-to-three weeks available after Sept 14 — delivering the regulatory clarity crypto has lobbied years for.
Worth knowing: Senate passage isn't enactment — a House-Senate conference and a presidential signature still stand between this and becoming law, and both Galaxy and Polymarket now treat this as a clear underdog outcome.
It stalls again
Ethics-provision gridlock, unresolved stablecoin-yield objections, a new AI-sandbox coalition fight, and a compressed pre-midterm floor calendar mean the bill dies with this Congress and crypto stays under the current fragmented SEC/CFTC regime.
Worth knowing: Prices already reflect a low probability (roughly 10-16% across trackers) — a 'no' outcome may already be mostly in the tape, so the asymmetric trade is in the timing and size of any relief rally if it does move, not in shorting a foregone conclusion.
16 sources, leaning both ways
- mixedGovInfo — H.R. 3633, Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Reported in Senate)Primary source — bill text and status; reported in the Senate Banking Committee June 1, 2026, sponsored by Sen. Tim Scott.
- mixedCryptoNews — CLARITY Act Senate Vote: Can It Clear 60 Votes?Details the new bipartisan proposal sent to the White House requiring officials to divest crypto holdings over $1M or 10% of a company's value — the freshest development on the ethics front.
- mixedPolymarket — Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Checked Sept 11: contract at 19% ($15.1M total traded), near the top of the mid-to-high-teens band it's held all week; measures full enactment, a higher bar than Senate passage alone.
- noAsianet Newsable — CLARITY Act Faces Setback: Thom Tillis Reportedly Warns Bill Could Fail Without White House Ethics DealSept 10-11: two Democratic aides say there has been little movement on the key Democratic ethics demand, even as the White House pushes back publicly — the gap between the administration's rhetoric and the actual negotiating text.
- mixedBitcoin.com News — Republican Senators Say CLARITY Act Passage Odds Aren't Looking GoodSept 10-11: reports the White House spokesperson statement that Trump wants Congress to pass the bill and that the administration has already agreed to a 'wide-ranging ethics provision' — the most direct rebuttal yet to Tillis and Rounds's pessimism, alongside NSA's shift from opposition to neutral ahead of the Sept 15 vote.
- noCoinspeaker — CLARITY Act: Lummis Warns of 2030 DelaySept 6: Sen. Cynthia Lummis posts that failure at cloture likely pushes the next realistic shot at crypto market-structure legislation to 2030 given the midterm calendar — raises the stakes of a 'no' without changing the odds.
- noCryptoTimes — CLARITY Act Faces New Uncertainty as Senate Ethics Talks StagnateSept 8: Tillis says the bill is 'likely doomed' absent White House movement on ethics language and Rounds says prospects 'do not look good' — the freshest and most pessimistic on-record read from the bill's own negotiators, six days before cloture.
- yesCoinDesk — White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealJuly 21: earlier reporting that the White House had reached agreement on ethics-provision language; Techtimes reported Democrats disputed having seen final text, and Sept 8 comments from Tillis/Rounds show the underlying dispute never actually closed.
- noBitcoin Foundation — CLARITY Act Hits September 15 DeadlineConfirms Republicans hold 53 seats but are expected to lose Sens. Hawley and Paul on cloture, meaning at least eight Democratic or independent votes are needed to reach 60 — a more precise vote count than earlier coverage offered.
- noCNBC — Crypto enters September with legislative policy gamble hanging by a threadSept 1: frames the Sept 15 cloture vote as the industry's last realistic shot this year, with the compressed post-vote legislative calendar (14 or fewer working days before midterm politics dominate) cited as the reason even a positive cloture result may not be enough.
- noCCN — CLARITY Act Countdown Begins: Sept. 15 Vote Looms as Odds Fall to 19.5%Reports odds falling as low as 15.5% before a partial bounce to 19.5% ahead of the Sept 15 cloture vote — corroborates the Polymarket drop from an independent angle.
- yesYahoo Finance — The U.S. Senate Faces a Critical Vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Says It Will PassArmstrong's public prediction that the bill passes — a notably more bullish read than where the prediction market has settled.
- noABA Banking Journal — Senate adjourns with no vote on Clarity ActConfirms the Aug 8 adjournment without a vote and the Sept 15 cloture date now on the calendar; documents banking-lobby opposition to stablecoin-yield provisions.
- noYahoo Finance — Senate Democrats Block Path to 60 Votes on CLARITY Act Before August RecessConfirms Senate Democrats' internal consensus to withhold cloture votes absent visible progress on ethics enforcement, illicit financing and other disputes, and that a revised ethics proposal has sat unanswered at the White House for over a week — the specific mechanism behind the flat probability.
- noJURIST — Coalition pushes US Senate to remove AI sandbox provisions from CLARITY Act78 civil-rights, labor and consumer groups' July 31 letter opposing the bill's AI Innovation Labs sandbox — a third front alongside ethics and stablecoin yield.
- yesDisruption Banking — CLARITY Act News: The Crypto Bill Just Slipped to a September 15 Senate ShowdownFrames the Sept 15 cloture vote as a real, near-term showdown rather than a bill that has quietly died — the case for treating this as still live.