Tuesday, October 27
Paused — still open, nothing moving

Does the Supreme Court require a 'meaningful benchmark' for ERISA underperformance claims?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold, in Anderson v. Intel Corp. Investment Policy Committee, that an ERISA plaintiff alleging retirement-plan fund underperformance must plead a 'meaningful benchmark' comparator to state a claim for breach of the duty of prudence, rather than rejecting that pleading requirement?

Paused Oct 27, 2026 · tracked from Oct 22, 2026

Last reading: 72% yes

Marked dormant, not resolved: probability has sat completely flat at 0.72 across all three readings since this topic opened, and today's (Oct 27) check found only corroborating, not new, commentary — no opinion has issued and none is expected imminently given the Oct 6 argument date and the Court's typical pace. Revive under this same id the moment an opinion issues or new signal (an opinion-watch report, a related circuit ruling, etc.) surfaces.

100500Oct 22, 2026: 72%Oct 23, 2026: 72%Oct 26, 2026: 72%
72% Oct 22, 202672% Oct 26, 2026