Does a US-Iran ceasefire take effect?
Will an effective ceasefire take hold between the United States and Iran, ending active US military operations and Iranian attacks on shipping in the conflict that began February 28, 2026?
Paused Oct 12, 2026 · tracked from Aug 31, 2026
Last reading: 1% yes
Marked dormant, not resolved: the probability has moved only 3 points across its last seven readings and has effectively found a floor even though the war itself remains very much live (UKMTO logged five separate Hormuz incidents on Oct 5 alone, with the pace of strikes still accelerating). No fresh diplomatic contact has surfaced in over two weeks and Iran's parliamentary leadership has declared the US track 'post-negotiations.' Revive under this same id if a real diplomatic opening or ceasefire push re-emerges.