Friday, September 25
Paused — still open, nothing moving

Does the Federal Circuit uphold the Section 122 tariffs?

Will the Federal Circuit reverse the CIT and hold the Section 122 surcharge lawful?

Paused Aug 19, 2026 · tracked from Jul 28, 2026

Last reading: 65% yes

Not resolved — moved to dormant purely to make room in active[] for a fresher question. The merits panel has gone thirteen straight weeks with no oral-argument date and no ruling; probability has sat flat at 0.65 (a twelve-reading run, no movement) with no new filing, briefing, or scheduling activity surfacing in research on Aug 19. This is a slow appellate docket, not a dead one — it keeps its id and full history here and will move back to active the moment there's a filing, an oral-argument date, or a ruling.

100500Jul 28, 2026: 60%Jul 31, 2026: 65%Aug 3, 2026: 65%Aug 4, 2026: 65%Aug 5, 2026: 65%Aug 6, 2026: 65%Aug 7, 2026: 65%Aug 10, 2026: 65%Aug 11, 2026: 65%Aug 12, 2026: 65%Aug 13, 2026: 65%Aug 14, 2026: 65%Aug 17, 2026: 65%Aug 18, 2026: 65%Aug 19, 2026: 65%
60% Jul 28, 202665% Aug 19, 2026