Friday, September 11
Immigration / labor policyupdated today

Does the $100,000 H-1B visa fee ultimately take effect?

Will the $100,000 H-1B visa fee imposed by presidential proclamation ultimately survive legal challenges and be enforced against new H-1B petitions?

10% yes — The fee is reinstated

Continued to drift down as the Sept 20 sunset closes to 9 days out with still no renewal signal from the White House or DHS — the dominant fact in the case remains the calendar, not any single filing

Skeptics of the proclamation fee surviving note the First Circuit explicitly found the government unlikely to succeed on the merits, the tax-vs-entry-restriction theory against it echoes the reasoning that sank the administration's IEEPA tariffs 6-3 at the Supreme Court in February 2026, and the proclamation's own Sept 20 sunset is now 9 days out with no public renewal signal. The counter-case: a separate D.C. district court already upheld the identical fee under Section 212(f) entry-restriction authority, a genuinely different theory a higher court could still credit, and the DHS rulemaking shows the administration still wants a $100K-plus H-1B fee in some form even if the current legal vehicle lapses — the underlying policy goal hasn't been abandoned even as this specific proclamation's odds fade.

No fixed date · Federal court litigation — First Circuit appeal pending, a Supreme Court review is plausible given the circuit split

The Sept 20 expiry of the underlying proclamation is now just 9 days away, and there is still no public signal — from the White House, DHS, or any joint agency recommendation filing — that a renewal is coming. State of California v. Mullin remains quiet, with briefing still tracking toward an Oct 16 conclusion, three-plus weeks after the proclamation itself would lapse on its own terms. The only visible administration activity this week is on the separate DHS rulemaking track: the $103,265 cap-subject fee remains a proposal only, not in effect, with the Sept 24 comment period still open and DHS free to revise, finalize, delay, or withdraw it afterward. Nothing in today's research changes the core fact: the litigated proclamation is now closer to expiring on its own terms (Sept 20) than to any ruling that would revive it (Oct 16 briefing conclusion at the earliest).

The fee either survives judicial review and is enforced, or the courts' vacatur stands and it is permanently blocked — a discrete legal outcome with no fixed date since the appellate timeline is at the courts' discretion.

Researched Sep 11, 2026 · tracked since Aug 24, 2026 · 15 readings

100500Aug 24, 2026: 32%Aug 25, 2026: 28%Aug 26, 2026: 27%Aug 27, 2026: 26%Aug 28, 2026: 24%Aug 31, 2026: 23%Sep 1, 2026: 22%Sep 2, 2026: 21%Sep 3, 2026: 20%Sep 4, 2026: 18%Sep 7, 2026: 16%Sep 8, 2026: 15%Sep 9, 2026: 14%Sep 10, 2026: 12%Sep 11, 2026: 10%
32% Aug 24, 202610% Sep 11, 2026

Build a position

market 10%you 10%no edge

You agree with the market.

Nothing here has positive expected value — the price already reflects this view. Move the slider to where you think the odds actually are.

Take a side

The fee is reinstatedthis is “yes”

The circuit split ultimately breaks the government's way — whether at the First Circuit on the merits or on Supreme Court review of the D.C. precedent — and the $100,000 charge is enforced against new H-1B petitions going forward.

Short
INFY InfosysThe largest India-based IT services firm by US H-1B petition volume; 93% of its new hires would be hit by the fee per Bloomberg analysis.
Short
WIT WiproSecond-largest India-based IT services ADR with comparable H-1B dependency to Infosys.
Short
CTSH Cognizant Technology SolutionsUS-listed but heavily H-1B dependent — 89% of its 2020-2024 new hires required the visa category the fee targets.
Long
ASGN ASGN IncorporatedUS-based IT staffing firm with far lower H-1B dependency than the Indian majors — a relative winner if rivals face a permanent cost shock.
Long
RHI Robert HalfDocumented as not H-1B dependent (19 labor condition applications in 2025) — structurally insulated from the fee either way.
Long
MAN ManpowerGroupDiversified global staffing conglomerate with a small IT/foreign-talent mix relative to its total placement volume — a marginal relative beneficiary.

Worth knowing: The most recent appellate signal (the First Circuit's stay denial) went against the government, so this is currently the underdog case — a bet that a higher court, not the current appellate posture, ultimately prevails.

The fee stays blocked

The Massachusetts vacatur holds up on appeal, the tax/separation-of-powers theory that already sank the administration's IEEPA tariffs at the Supreme Court carries the day again, and the fee never takes effect.

Long
INFY InfosysThe largest India-based IT services firm by US H-1B petition volume; 93% of its new hires would be hit by the fee per Bloomberg analysis.
Long
WIT WiproSecond-largest India-based IT services ADR with comparable H-1B dependency to Infosys.
Long
CTSH Cognizant Technology SolutionsUS-listed but heavily H-1B dependent — 89% of its 2020-2024 new hires required the visa category the fee targets.
Short
ASGN ASGN IncorporatedUS-based IT staffing firm with far lower H-1B dependency than the Indian majors — a relative winner if rivals face a permanent cost shock.
Short
RHI Robert HalfDocumented as not H-1B dependent (19 labor condition applications in 2025) — structurally insulated from the fee either way.
Short
MAN ManpowerGroupDiversified global staffing conglomerate with a small IT/foreign-talent mix relative to its total placement volume — a marginal relative beneficiary.

Worth knowing: A district-court vacatur and a favorable stay denial are not a final ruling — the D.C. precedent upholding the fee is real, and if the Supreme Court takes the case on the entry-restriction theory rather than the tax theory, the calculus changes quickly.

13 sources, leaning both ways