Does the Fed hike at the September FOMC?
Will the FOMC raise its target rate at the September 2026 meeting?
Kalshi and Polymarket continue to agree closely with each other (both roughly 50/50 hold-vs-hike) and have stopped moving much day to day, which is itself informative — the market isn't confidently pricing either outcome. The case for hold rests on Hormuz optimism translating into a durable oil pullback; the case for hike rests on the July FOMC's 9-3 vote (three dissents, the most same-direction dissents since 2016), Chair Warsh's refusal to rule a hike out, and the fact that Iran itself denies the US talks Trump is describing — meaning the de-escalation the hold case needs is not yet confirmed by both sides.
Resolves Sep 16, 2026 · September FOMC decision
Odds barely moved and remain close to a coin flip. DeFiRate's cross-venue aggregate now shows hold at 50.6% versus a combined 49.1% chance of any hike (44.6% for 25bp, 4.5% for 50bp+) — essentially flat from Monday's 51.2%/45.6% split, with Kalshi (51.5% hold/46.5% hike) and Polymarket (50.5%/44.5%) still tracking each other closely. The Hormuz story that has been driving this cuts both ways today: Iran and Oman said Wednesday they're close to a shipping-route framework, but Iran's deputy foreign minister Gharibabadi explicitly denied any direct US-Iran talks even as Trump insisted reopening was 'soon' and called Tehran 'unbelievably duplicitous' days earlier, and a Houthi-claimed strike on a Saudi tanker kept Brent above $80. A Gulf official put the odds of an actual Iran-Oman deal by Friday at 50-50. The next hard catalyst is still the July CPI print due August 12.
The FOMC either raises the target range at the meeting or it doesn't (hold or cut) — a discrete policy action either happens or it doesn't, decided on a published date.
Researched Aug 6, 2026 · tracked since Jul 28, 2026 · 6 readings
Jul 28, 202665%→Jul 31, 202680%reframed→Aug 3, 202668%→Aug 4, 202660%→Aug 5, 202646%→Aug 6, 202648%
Take a side
The Fed hikes
Oil-driven inflation proves sticky into the September prints, the hawkish dissent becomes the committee's center of gravity, and the Fed delivers 25bp in September — validating the ~80% futures already price.
Worth knowing: Futures have moved this fast before and reversed just as fast. A hike this large a shift is only two Iran-driven CPI prints old — a ceasefire that cools oil prices could unwind most of this repricing before September 16.
The Fed holds (or cuts)
The oil shock proves transitory, as Miran argues, June's negative monthly inflation prints (when oil fell) reassert themselves, and the committee holds — validating the FactSet consensus over the futures market.
Worth knowing: This is now the contrarian trade against futures pricing, which means it is priced cheaply if right but requires oil and the Iran war to cooperate — a variable the Fed does not control.
5 sources, leaning both ways
- mixedFederal Reserve — FOMC statement, July 29, 2026Primary source — the 9-3 vote and the three dissents favoring a hike.
- mixedDeFiRate — September Fed Rate Predictions & Odds: Kalshi vs. PolymarketLive aggregated pricing as of Aug 6: hold 50.6%, hike (25bp) 44.6%, hike (50bp+) 4.5%, cut 1.5% — essentially flat vs. Aug 5.
- noCNN — Live updates: Iran says Hormuz deal is close but US must meet commitments before strait reopensToday's standoff — Iran says a deal is close but conditions it on US commitments, tempering the de-escalation case.
- noIranWire — Iran Denies Direct US Talks on Hormuz, Says Only Oman InvolvedDeputy FM Gharibabadi's on-record denial of direct US talks — undercuts the imminent-deal framing driving the hold case.
- yesBloomberg — Iran, Oman Reach Agreement on Proposed Strait of Hormuz Shipping RouteThe Iran-Oman shipping framework — the concrete step supporting the hold-favoring case, though it stops short of reopening.